Because I'm a huge calculation nerd as well, an update to
this analysis after Paris GP:
Today's Mens competition just made the GPF race a lot more interesting because the big points went to skaters who didn't really need them (Chan & Kozuka), and Joubert didn't dominate as expected.
Those in position to qualify after Paris are:
*1) Patrick Chan: 30 points, 2 events done
*2) Takahiko Kozuka: 28 points, 2 events done
3) Jeremy Abbott: 15 points, 1 GP event to go (Russia)
4) Johnny Weir: 13 points, 1 GP event to go (Japan)
(*they are definitely in, assuming they don't get injured)
Threat meter
1. (High threat) Joubert, 9 points, 1 GP event to go (Russia), points so far: 221.13
Joubert is still probably expected to win CoR, and may be a little desperate after a 4th place finish in Paris. But then again Brian already has a lot of titles so might not care much either way. He needs a silver or better with a big score to make the final.
2. (High threat) Stephen Carriere: 13 points, 1 GP event to go (Japan), points so far: 217.25
I am moving Carriere down because even though he skated perfectly in China, he did not score that high because of low PCS and no quad. If he finishes 3rd or below in Japan (which is very possible if Oda and Weir, maybe even Takahashi are there), other skaters can outscore and pass him in the rankings.
3. (Medium threat) Verner, 11 points, 1 GP event to go (Russia), points so far: 205.48
Tomas would need high 220s or 230s in Russia and a podium finish to have a chance (he's in a bit of a hole with a low score in China). He has the PCS and difficulty for it, he just needs to avoid major brain farts and not pop so much (easier said than done).
4. (Medium threat) Preaubert, 11 points, 1 GP event to go (Russia), score so far: 222.44
I think Preaubert skated his best today because of the home crowd. This score is beatable and he would need another perfect performance and a silver or better in Russia to have a chance at GPF, and this would only happen if better skaters in Russia made errors.
5. (Medium threat) Lysacek, 22 points, 2 events done, total points: 432.48. Lysacek is still very much on the bubble.
6. (Low threat) Bordolin, 9 points, 1 GP event to go (Russia)
7. (Low threat) Reynolds, 9 points, 1 GP event to go (Japan)
8. (Low threat) Ponsero, 9 points, 1 GP event to go (Japan)
I am crossing my fingers for the following Men's GPF:
Chan
Kozuka
Weir
Abbott
Joubert
Verner
!!!
Now that would be an exciting competition.